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Has the left lost in Germany?

There's more to this election result than meets the eye, argues Victor Grossman - and the Left Party is poised to benefit

What rejoicing! What a triumph for Angela Merkel!

All the world has been congratulating her since her election victory last weekend. And yes, she succeeded in winning an awful lot of votes on Sunday.

But now Merkel is groping around for a coalition partner. We might have the news by the time you read this, or it may take weeks. So was it such a big win after all?

She got 42 per cent of the vote. That's impressive with so many parties contesting, and it leaves her with the biggest bloc in the Bundestag, 311 seats out of 630.

Five seats short of a majority.

But her previous partners, the right-wing Free Democrats, nosedived. Their collapse saw them only receive 4.8 per cent of the vote - less than the 5 per cent minimum needed to hold any seats at all.

So instead of a more or less like-minded partner, further right than her Christian Democrats (CDU) on most issues, she must try to forge an alliance with someone else.

Most likely it will be with her main election opponents, the Social Democrats (SDP).

With their 192 seats that would mean a whopping majority, though it would also see them trying to get in on the act, stymying moves they disagree with.

But if we are to judge by the four years - 2005-9 - when such a grand coalition ruled differences of principle may not be a problem.

In their election campaign the Social Democrats tried to sound socially conscious. But back in 2007 both parties united to raise VAT from 16 to 19 per cent on virtually all purchases, a bitter blow to working people.

And since then the SDP has backed much of the austerity being visited on Germany and agreed with virtually all of Merkel's foreign policies.

Indeed, her campaign foe Peer Steinbruck has served happily as Merkel's finance minister in the past.

So no sea-changes in sight if the two big parties hook up. But there's another possibility - could Merkel instead turn to the Greens, who with 63 seats could also provide a majority?

For years, most Greens would have considered the whisper of such a move the worst kind of blasphemy. After all, they started out as a protest party.

But somehow its leaders have greyed not just physically but in the vigour of their principles.

They have hammered away at atomic and coal energy, gaining some popularity especially after the Fukushima catastrophe in Japan, but otherwise they have moved to what is euphemistically called the "centre-ground."

And the ecological demands they have made often lack regard for the welfare of the less prosperous.

On foreign policy they have often been rabid, denouncing Merkel for not joining the war against Libya in 2011 while approving - with the honourable exception of a few mavericks - involvement in Afghanistan.

There is another possibility. A really radical one. A coalition without the CDU.

The Left Party swept into third place in this election with 64 seats. Added to those of the SDP and the Greens that makes 319 - a majority.

During the entire election campaign the right warned of just this danger, sounding as if the three parties were conspiring to rebuild the Berlin Wall.

The SDP swore repeatedly that they would never, ever even think of joining these far-left bad boys - and bad girls, 34 of those new MPs are women - in government, and the Greens chimed in, if not quite so loud.

Within the Left Party there was also a lot of debate about whether joining such a coalition might head them down a fatal rightward ramp.

Now the possibility has finally arrived. But it seems likely that as in the past, the SDP and Greens would rather team up with the right than with a party which - whatever its inner conflicts and disagreements - is the only real force opposing painful, unnecessary cuts at home and an ever more aggressive role on the international stage.

So what about the Left? How did it do in an election often labelled dull, unexciting, boring?

Well, media concentration on the two main candidates, whose personalities differed more sharply than their views or plans, provided that label. Actually in this election it was the Left Party that provided the suspense.

Much of the German media reported that the party was a loser, having received fewer votes than in 2009, which is true enough - it won around 8.6 per cent compared to 12 per cent then.

But that was after four years of CDU-SDP coalition. And the Left has been hit so hard by outside pressures and internal disputes that before June many doubted it would even get the 5 per cent needed to stay in the Bundestag.

But an armistice within the party and consistent, principled positions on cuts and against war on Syria saw the poll figures inch upwards.

After talk of double-digit results 8.6 per cent is a disappointment, but the Left is definitely still in play - and with the Free Democrats out and the Greens in freefall it is now the third biggest party in the Bundestag.

Its main election speaker Gregor Gysi noted: "If I had said in 1990 that our party would one day become third-srtongest in Germany I might have ended up in psychiatric treatment."

And if Merkel follows the most likely course and joins the SDP in government then the Left will be the leaders of Germany's opposition.

There was one more slim victory for the Left last weekend - aside from the federal vote there was one state election on Sunday, in Hesse.

It was mostly a CDU-SDP race but four smaller parties yearned to cross the 5 per cent finish line.

The new right-wing Alternative for Germany party, capitalising on opposition to the euro, got lots of votes for a new party but missed the hurdle in Hesse and nationally.

The Pirate Party got marooned on around 2 per cent.

The Free Democrats survived in Hesse - just - with 5 per cent. And the Left too teetered near that fatal line but got in with 5.4 per cent.

Not a resounding triumph - but they'll be there, embarrassing the other Hessians in the state legislature.

There, as nationally, it will be necessary to move parties like Lego bricks in order to form a government without the accursed lefties.

They cannot be ignored. This, too, is a victory of sorts.

We shouldn't be overoptimistic. The Christian Democrats moved ahead almost everywhere. In a real sense Merkel did win this election.

As for the Left, it came second in four of the five former East German states. In East Berlin it regained some of its former strength, coming first everywhere and getting almost 35 per cent in one borough. It also did well in West Berlin, hitting 15 per cent in a borough there.

A hodge-podge of results nationally, and it may take a while before we know the complexion of Germany's new government. An overarching CDU-SDP coalition under the sceptre of "Mutti" (Mother) Angela could easily see Germany lurching further to the right.

It all depends on the strength of the opposition.

Victor Grossman

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