Right plots to undermine people's verdict

Venezuelan pollster International Consulting Services, a conducted a survey of 2,200 people in June.

In the run-up to Venezuela's presidential election in October, the poll found that Hugo Chavez enjoys a 25.2 per cent advantage over the right-wing coalition's candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski.

Another poll conducted in July last year showed support for Chavez at 57.4 per cent and Capriles's support at 35.5 per cent, indicating that Chavez's support has increased but Capriles's has declined.

Capriles's campaign has clearly stagnated badly. Furthermore, in response to a question about the performance of the government, the respondents gave Chavez a breakdown of 26.9 per cent Excellent; 26.9 per cent Good; and 17.6 per cent Regular to Good.

The ICS poll also shows that since March the trend regarding Chavez's performance is upwards.

To the question "Which of the two candidates would guarantee the country's sovereignty," the respondents gave Chavez 56.2 per cent, while only 28.4 per cent opted for Capriles.

It is important to note that the ICS figures are consistent with a trend that has remained broadly unchanged since July 2011 - all serious pollsters (IVAD, Datanalisis, Hinterlaces and GISXXI) broadly coincide with the ICS, their polls giving Chavez a lead of 15 to 35 per cent.

Many within Venezuela believe Chavez's strong poll leads could mean that the opposition will not recognise the election results, as happened in 2005.

The recent Sao Paulo Forum of left movements from across Latin America explained this situation and scenario.

"With elections only a few months away, the right takes Hugo Chavez's electoral triumph for granted. For this reason, while the right takes part in the electoral process [it] is setting the stage to disavow both the result and the National Electoral Council.

"Faced with this situation, the Forum of Sao Paulo summons progressive and left-wing forces to support Venezuelan democracy and to reject the destabilising attempts made by the right."

Following months of public pressure, where Capriles would not commit to respecting the election results, a representative of Capriles signed an agreement drafted by the National Electoral Committee (CNE) obliging candidates to "respect the laws which regulate the electoral process" and to "recognise the results" announced by the CNE.

However, Capriles did not sign it himself, unlike Chavez.

For many, this reluctance to say that they will respect the results is puzzling given the efficient and impartial manner in which the CNE conducts elections.

Since Chavez came to office numerous elections been declared free and fair by international observers from bodies such as the European Union, the Organisation of American States and the Carter Centre.

Despite many media depictions to the contrary, Venezuela's opposition maintains loose adherence to democratic principles.

Since Chavez's election in 1998, the right-wing opposition has been responsible for the temporarily successful 2002 coup in which the de facto government simply abolished democracy, the 2003 oil lock-out that nearly brought the economy to collapse and whose declared aim was to overthrow Chavez, the recall referendum in 2004 with the declared aim of ousting Chavez and the boycott of the 2005 parliamentary elections with the declared aim of delegitimising the government's electoral victory.

The opposition has remained directly or indirectly involved in other destabilisation efforts against the democratically elected government, some of which have involved violence.

The US State Department, USAid, the National Endowment for Democracy and many other US specialists in destabilisation make no secret of their support and encouragement for the right.

Opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez recently visited Colombia's former president Alvaro Uribe to get his advice on a "security plan" for Venezuela and the National Endowment for Democracy has allocated $20 million for Venezuela this year - facts which, combined with the Venezuelan right's highly undemocratic record, have raised fears within Venezuela's progressive movements.

They believe that the right's current campaign to discredit the CNE and the fairness of the elections is a plank for future anti-democratic actions to be carried out in cahoots with external factors.

The Venezuelan government is right to be concerned about possible external interference. In the highly likely event of the right's electoral defeat on October 7, it will probably reject the verdict of the Venezuelan people and resort to undemocratic methods, as it has done on so many occasions, with the aim of destabilising and ultimately overthrowing Venezuela's elected government.

International awareness and support for Venezuela's right to national sovereignty are more important than ever.

Francisco Dominguez is the secretary of the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign and will be a speaker at a Rally for Venezuela with Jeremy Corbyn MP, the TUC's Frances O'Grady and writer Richard Gott on September 26 at 6.30pm at NUT headquarters in Mabledon place. More information can be found at www.venezuelasolidarity.co.uk