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P.D. Crofts - Moments Before The Crash



Diamond Harry can claim Argento victory

Star tipster casts his expert eye over the best of the weekend's races
Friday 27 January 2012

Cheltenham

Another cracking weekend of racing tomorrow with trials day at Cheltenham and the Sky Bet Handicap Chase the feature event at Doncaster.

Although it has been some time since the Argento Chase produced a winner of the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, this year's renewal looks well up to standard despite the late withdrawal of the likely favourite Grand Crus.

One thing is for certain in this extended three-mile trial at 2.35 - there will be plenty of pace on and therefore no hiding place for the potential non-stayers with a trio of front-runners in Neptune Collonges, Hennessy winner Carruthers and Midnight Chase set to line up along with out-and-out stayer Time For Rupert.

The last named of that trio has been a disappointment this season, but can be excused his first run at Wetherby where he probably needed the outing and then in the Betfair Chase at Haydock Park he was quite simply rushed off his feet on a sharp track.

This is more his set-up and Cheltenham odds of 11/2 look about right, especially if we get some give in the ground. 

I want to be firmly against Captain Chris, who didn't get home in the King George and must be odds-on not to last up the hill here over further in a fast-run race.

In fact in anticipation of him bombing out tomorrow, I have backed him for the Ryanair Chase at 14/1 as it seems the perfect race for him.

But this could well be Diamond Harry's day, he comes here fresh and unlike before his run in the Betfair he has had a relatively uninterrupted prep. We still may not have seen the best of last year's Hennessy winner.

Doncaster

The Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster looks very competitive and if Aiteen Thithree is as good as Paul Nicholls thinks he is then he should go very close off a mark of 150 after running well for a long way in the Hennessy.

I would expect him to be up in the van in what is always a true run race and that will certainly suit Galaxy Rock.

The selection got stuck in the mud at Chepstow in the Welsh National last time out and should be much more at home on this surface.

Previously a runaway winner at Cheltenham over an extended trip, he looks solid each-way value at around 12/1.

Of his rivals, Wayward Prince is certainly capable of playing a hand over a course and distance he has been successful at before, while of the more experienced rivals I have most regard for Billy Magern who will be suited by the track and these easier fences.

Best of the rest

Baby Mix should land the opener at 12.55 at Cheltenham, while I also fancy the likes of Secret Edge in the 3.00 and over at Lingfield Loyal Royal in the 3.10.

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