Green shoots in France as race card backfires

On Sunday the French regional elections saw the ruling right-wing Union for a Popular Movement take a beating and the Socialist Party extend its already extensive reach across French regional government. The elections shine a light on exactly how unpopular Nicolas Sarkozy's government has become.

The right was determined to focus this election on national identity and Islam, and the vote was conducted in the context of proposed laws to ban the burka.

While the race card backfired for Sarkozy and his party, the dangerous game that they are playing has stoked the fascist vote and saw the National Front resurrected after gaining 11.7 per cent.

The National Front's campaign focused on the "danger" that Islam poses to France and, as Sarkozy has just found out, if you encourage people to be racists they will vote for the down-the-line racists.

The results had added significance for the National Front - long-time leader Jean-Marie Le Pen is 81 and is expected to step down from the party's leadership soon.

The regional elections were an opportunity for potential leaders to jockey for position and Le Pen's daughter Marine, who is already an MEP, has emerged as the likely successor.

The election's Islamophobic rhetoric spilled over into direct action last week with dozens of pig-masked protesters raiding a restaurant for the "offence" of selling halal burgers. Commenting on Sarkozy's tactics, Ecology Europe leader Daniel Cohn-Bendit pointed to the National Front rise and said: "Bravo, Mr Sarkozy - here's the result."

However, the story was not one-sided and the French left, which has not always been strong on these issues, was able to confront these racist ideas with mixed success.

The New Anti-Capitalist Party ran a hijab-wearing candidate to national uproar and most parties of the left refused to compromise with the anti-Islam mood.

Ecology Europe ran a very clear anti-racist campaign and saw its vote skyrocket, leaving it as the nation's third party. It's clear that while French society is seeing a rise in racism, there is a powerful countertrend of anti-racism.

Martine Aubry, leader of the victorious Socialist Party, stressed that "the French sent a clear and strong message. They today expressed their refusal to see a divided France." That may be overstating the case, but certainly Sarkozy's poor performance is a real victory for the left.

The rise of Ecology Europe was not wholly unexpected though as it won third place at the European elections last year. But its impressive result of 13 per cent, including over 20 per cent in Paris, is a massive leap forward from the last regional elections six years ago in 2004 where Ecology Europe polled just 2 per cent.

When the second round of voting takes place next Sunday, this puts the left in a formidable position. Ecology Europe explicitly positions itself as a party of the left and takes part in Socialist Party-led coalitions.

Negotiations have already begun between the Socialist Party and Ecology Europe for joint lists in the second-round elections which will see unprecedented "green" representation.

This means that while the left won 20 of the 22 French regions last time, they are in position to extend that already impressive hold on regional government.

However, one of the headlines of the election is the record low turnout with over half the electorate refusing to cast their vote.

A closer look at the Socialist Party support sees that it had a successful night because its vote has collapsed less spectacularly than Sarkozy's vote, rather than because of some revival in its fortunes.

The Socialist Party has been riven with splits and rows over the last few years, which saw some leading members leave the party.

Likewise, Sarkozy's leadership has been consistently rocked by internal rows and disaffection including court cases and high-profile walkouts.

However, unlike the Socialist Party, Sarkozy has no potential coalition partners on the right with the National Front adamant that it will not lend support in the second round.

With the centre parties losing ground, and the good results for Ecology Europe and the National Front, it's clear that French society is becoming increasingly polarised - a pattern we've seen recently in a number of elections throughout Europe.

However, the parties of the far left, which stood on a number of unity tickets, did not significantly benefit from the collapse of the centre.

The left vote was, as usual, split - but this time between left unity coalitions.

The New Anti-Capitalist Party, whose most recognisable figure Olivier Besancenot was the highest polling far-left candidate at the last presidential election, polled a disappointing 2 per cent at their first electoral outing.

Much of the press attention was focused on the fact that one region selected a young female activist who wears the hijab. The party's leadership were supportive of their candidate but there is no doubt that this was a controversial decision both inside and outside the party.

The New Anti-Capitalist Party was outshone by the Left Front - a coalition between disaffected Socialist Party members, Communists and some smaller parties. It polled a more respectable 6.2 per cent. However, both parties will no doubt be disappointed with the results.

What all this means for French politics is clear - that the future is unclear. With racism on the rise and the National Front's renewal of fortunes the threat of the far-right is still very much present. However, the right-wing government is unloved and faces opposition both at the ballot box and in the streets.

It's quite possible that this period could see the Socialist Party put its troubles behind it and go on to win the presidency at the next election. But nothing is certain because of threats to its right and to its left.

Although those coalitions to the Socialist Party's left did not perform very well at this election, their vote did not collapse either and they may still be able to capitalise on the problems of the centre. Certainly, the extraordinary rise of the Ecology Europe vote shows that French voters are willing to look to alternatives and to oppose the growing tide of racism.