by our parliamentary reporter @TrinderMatt

COVID-19 disruption could cost every school pupil in England up to £46,000 in future lost earnings, with regions outside the south-east hit harder, a new report found today.

The Education Policy Institute’s (EPI) modelling suggested pupils would lose at least £16,000 in expected income, rising to £46,000 for those who suffered the most learning loss over three national lockdowns, if Tory ministers fail to intervene.

As the government is only spending about £310 per pupil on education recovery, compared with £2,000 in the US and the Netherlands, the total long-term cost to the economy could reach £463 billion, researchers warned.

They also identified stark regional differences in learning loss — with pupils in parts of the north and Midlands the worst affected. 

The average learning loss in primary maths measured last December ranged between 0.5 months in the south-west and 5.3 months in Yorkshire and the Humber, the think tank reported.

It stressed that the government’s national tutoring programme, set up to support disadvantaged children who have lost out the most, is faltering with low take-up in the north where it is most needed. 

EPI chief executive Natalie Perera slammed the £3.1bn education recovery programme as falling well short of the £13.5bn funding package required.

She called on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to prioritise education in next week’s Budget. 

“Without a bold education recovery funding settlement targeted at those pupils who need it most, any wider plans from the government to address longstanding regional inequalities are consigned to fail,” Ms Perera said. 

Reacting to the report, National Education Union joint general secretary Dr Mary Bousted accused ministers of seeking education recovery on the cheap.

“Recovery will require years of work and investment. It is for the government to meet that funding challenge in the comprehensive spending review to make sure no child is left behind.”

And NAHT deputy general secretary Nick Brook warned that unless the government “shifts up a gear,” attempts to level the playing field between poorer and richer students would stall. 

A government spokesperson said ministers are “significantly expanding” its national tutoring programme which has already benefited more than 300,000 children.