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WITH plenty of rain on the way, the set up for many of this afternoon’s racecourses could change dramatically and for the big betting event of the day, the 20-runner Great St Wilfrid Handicap at 3.15, any massive ground changes could become a huge factor.

Ante-post favourite, Summerghand, hasn’t won for nine outings since landing a Listed contest at Lingfield Park in November, but that means his handicap mark has dropped from 109 to 97, but the veteran would prefer a sound surface and that may not be the case come the middle of the afternoon.

A winner on soft ground off 83 earlier this season and subsequently second off 86 last time out, LAKOTA BLUE won’t mind what the weather and therefore the ground does. Now rated off 88, and drawn right against the far side rail, he has plenty of speed around him and could be hard to hold here having only his 12^th start on turf. Of course a career best effort is needed here, but the Nigel Tinkler trained charge may well take another step forward here and take care of his veteran rival as well as the likes of Dream For Gold and light weight Live In the Moment.

But by far the best bet on the card and perhaps the whole afternoon is MARK’S CHOICE who was unsuited by the very fast ground at Doncaster last time out but every drop of rain that falls will aid his chance in the 2.40 event, the Silver Trophy Handicap. A slightly unlucky in running fourth of eight over the course and distance in May off a rating of 77, he now has a chance to run off the same mark here which gives him very solid each-way claims and anything north of 8/1 would be a very feasible each-way play especially as many bookmakers will be offering enhanced place terms.

SPIRIT CATCHER is set to have his sights lowered off top weight when he drops to class four level after a disappointing run in a red hot class two event at Ascot last time out. The lightly raced Freedom Day and course and distance specialist Garden Oasis look sure to make a race of it with the Charlie Johnston trained runner.

Finally at the North Yorkshire trained track, have a close look at the bottom weighted RIBKANA who I think can make the most of the 19lbs she is set to receive from the top weight Little Ted.

There are two group races on the card at Newbury, but the impending rain is not a good sign for top of the ground runner Jumby who remains on the upgrade and runs over his optimum trip in the Hungerford Stakes at 3.35.

Any ease in the ground, mainly from Friday, will definitely play to the strengths of the Spanish raider RODABALLO a cracking close up sixth to Ghaly in a class two handicap at Ascot. His previous three runs on good ground at Meydan make him a prime player here with several of the leading protagonists in the betting surely at their best on genuinely good ground.

The Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes at 1.50 may well see the three-year-olds see off the older horses over 13 furlongs. KLONDIKE (nap) found the ground way too fast in the Bahrain Trophy behind Castle Way, but is much better than that run suggests. Rain would aid his cause here and make him a player in the St Leger later on in the season.

LION KINGDOM looks set to make up for a good second at the back end of July at Newmarket. This will be just the sixth career start for this son of Roaring Lion and off a mark of 83 and with Oisin Murphy on board the partnership should too strong for Charlton-trained Valsad. The last named is also interesting as he was well backed to win last time out following a long break, but was thought to need the outing more than connections thought. He is much better than that run at Doncaster suggests and I know that his esteemed training team feel that the son of Intello remains very well treated.

Despite all the rain around, it is unlikely to affect Newmarket too much and that should suit SILVER SAMURAI in the opening sprint due off at 2.05. The six-year-old has been plying his trade at a much higher level over the past four months, and during that time has dropped a full 10lbs in the ratings to 87. If the odd shower takes the sting out of the turf then he could readily give the weight away to the likes of all-weather winner Celtic Champion and course and distance winner Strike.

It is much harder to know how much rain Doncaster will get, but some heavy showers are forecast for the area on Friday, but a dry and sunny Saturday should ensure a drying surface. MOLINARI looks to be a very well-handicapped horse at the moment and takes his chance in the class four, extended mile and a half handicap at 3.05. He has a strike rate of five wins from 30 starts, placed on a further 12 occasions, shows his consistency and a repeat of his second of nine to Chillingham last year off 82 would be good enough to win this so off 77 here and with cheek pieces on for the first time he looks a major player up against the likes of the lightly raced outsider Lion’s Mane and Leitzel.

The last named was quite a highly tried juvenile last year from the David O’Meara yard, and looked to be on the way back two outings back when an eye-catching seventh at Ascot, but got caught in the mud last time out at Haydock. This extended trip should be well within her scope and she could be worth a saver or worth putting in a forecast with the selection.