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Racing Farringdon: Rain could see Lone Eagle soar

THE King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes have always been the high point of the British racing year as the classic generation takes on the older horses. But as we have gone into the 21st century, connections of the best horses in training – especially Derby winners – have swerved this all-age test. They have instead tried a drop back to 10 furlongs to enhance breeding value, or waited until a belated autumn campaign to take in France’s prestigious Arc as their main aim.

So, with that said, it is nice to see the authoritative Epsom hero Adayar take his place in the line-up for the group-one event this afternoon (3.35).

Although I tipped the Godolphin charge for Epsom this year, I am hesitant in going all in again here because of the prevailing good-to-firm ground. OK, he has run well on it before, but the Derby success came on a dead surface — being a heavier-topped horse he seemed to relish that turf in June.

However there could be mitigating circumstances as there are thunderstorms forecast for the Berkshire area from about 11am. Should they arrive on time to ease the ground, I could see the three-year-old attracting a welter weight of money and market rival Love (who wants it lightning fast) drifting in the marketplace.

That kind of weather pattern could not only determine which equine great-to-be wins this famous race, but crucially the state of the marketplace beforehand.

Some rain would probably also aid the Irish Derby runner-up LONE EAGLE, who is three-from-three on soft ground and looked a shade unlucky, having been out in front for a long way, to get mown down by Hurricane Lane at the Curragh.

I fancy that if Frankie rides him with a bit more restraint, whatever the state of the turf, the son of Galileo could be the best value of the trio at about the 5/1 mark, with a natural frontrunner to chase in the form of the other Ballydoyle entry Broome.

Mishriff has a bit to prove after being brushed aside in the Eclipse Stakes, but on official ratings he has nothing to find with the three leading protagonists in the betting. There were murmurs from the John Gosden camp that the winner of over £10 million in prize money needed that run to put an edge on him, having been on the sidelines for eight weeks following his gutsy display in the Sheema Classic at Meydan.

The handicaps are always ultra competitive on King George day at Ascot, and this year none more so than the 22-runner International Stakes over seven furlongs at 3.00.

Brilliant Bunbury Cup winner Motakhayyel has been shifted up to a mark of 112 by the handicapper following that enormously emphatic Newmarket success, but this is just a 3lbs rise in the weights which I think could easily have been 5lbs without protest. He remains in the mix here as a real-time weight of 9-13 is not beyond this strapping sort.

But if the rain holds off, my top choice would be MATTHEW FLINDERS. He has not entirely been ignored in the market (top price of 8/1 at the time of writing), but the drop back to seven furlongs at Chester seemed to suit him last time out. Off a rapid pace and a potentially good draw in stall 20, he could be able to pick this field off readily up the final climb.

Of the remainder of the field, Ropey Guest is weighted to get closer to his Bunbury Cup conqueror and was badly drawn at Royal Ascot on both of his runs. If the rains do come in profusion, grand veteran Raising Sands would be a huge player after being first home on the far side in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, in which Danyah was second. Tomfre, who also ran well in that race, should also perform with credit having been let loose a bit early on that afternoon, but I fear that the handicapper may well have him in his pocket at the moment.

The handicap stakes for female amateur riders at 4.45 has always been a favourite betting medium of mine and is for those horses well below the level of the International.

A slightly disappointing entry of just 11 will go to post this year and HAJJAM (nap) could be just about the best handicapped in the field.

The seven-year-old was rated as high as 85 last year when runner-up in back-to-back class-three handicaps at Ayr last year, in one of them beaten a mere length and a half by the smart Ascension.

Since then the selection has plummeted down to his current rating of just 69 and if the inexperienced Megan Brookes can get him settled early on – having tended to race rather keenly this year – he could be the value in the field, at about 16/1, ahead of the French import Carnival Zain and the equally well-weighted top weight Mustarrid.

Elsewhere, EEH BAH GUM, partnered by Jamie Hamilton in the professional jump jockey sprint at York (2.05), could run well on a course and distance he excels over, while later at Knavesmire GEORGE BOWEN (2.40) and MOHAAFETH (feature York Stakes, 3.15) look sure to make a mark on the card.

Away from the big meetings, have a second look at the disappointing KEEPER (nb) in the mile-and-three-quarters finale at Salisbury due off at 8.35.

This beautifully bred sort has disappointed several times for Roger Charlton in a six-race career, with just a Bath handicap off 60 the only gold medal to his name. However, this step up in distance could be the making of him and could be the start of a mid-summer purple patch for the son of Frankel.

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